A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
