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If 2025 was already shaping up to be the worst year in modern history for the post-1945 rules-based world order, recent days has been its most destructive week yet. The Israeli government deepened its disregard for international conventions after deploying 10 fighter jets to Qatar, bombing a Hamas delegation participating in peace negotiations in Doha. The final significant platform aimed at dialogue may now have vanished completely.

No fewer than 19 Russian drones violated Poland’s airspace. For the first time, allied military aircraft was engaged against enemy targets inside a Nato country. Whether the incursion was a technical mishap or deliberate probing by Moscow, as western experts believe, it represented the nearest the world has come to outright war after WWII,” the Polish leader, the head of government, stated.

Subsequently, a prominent conservative voice, a firebrand conservative activist and close Donald Trump ally, was shot dead while addressing college students and political followers at a Utah university. In the absence of proof of the shooter’s identity or intentions, Trump immediately blamed left-wing extremists,” claiming they of rhetoric that led directly for the terrorism occurring currently across the nation now.”

When questioned about a polarized country might reconcile following the murder, Trump said he was indifferent”. The reasoning provided for that was chilling: “The radicals on the right act aggressively since they oppose criminal activity … The radicals on the left are the problem – being dangerous and despicable and politically savvy.” This is how polarisation hardens into tribalism. Thus cycles of hostility accelerates toward irreversible conflict.

Actually, more than three-quarters of all extremist-related killings in the US over the last 10 years have come from rightwing extremists, while left-wing radicals accountable for just a small number of these incidents. Trump condemned political violence in general a day later – yet omitted mention of a series of recent of attacks targeting liberal figures, which involved multiple murders. To him, the problem is perpetually others, never the loyal supporters constituting his base.

The societal repercussions of Kirk’s death are certain to emerge in the coming weeks, but the biggest danger amid deep divisions involves the shooting transforms into a Reichstag fire in contemporary times. The deliberate burning which occurred in early 1933 marked Germany’s pivot away from democracy to outright dictatorship. Hitler, freshly installed as chancellor, capitalized on the incident to extinguish the freedoms under previous governance – free speech, media independence, organizational liberty, assembly.

“Those opposing us will be cut down,” he declared, inspecting the arsoned building. Thousands of communists were jailed, even elected representatives within the legislature. With the left neutralised, the Nazis swiftly consolidated power.

Within modern America, the tragic killing has captivated the nation, galvanising the Maga movement and Trump’s supporters, and he knows it. An extremist figure, a controversial commentator, demanded detainment of every Democratic politician, openly claiming the murder as a pivotal Reichstag fire moment.

In truth, here is the event that could rescue a struggling administration plagued with a sharp drop in job numbers, currency devaluation, and a housing crisis. Trump mourned Kirk as though he were family, but the rhetoric suggested this would be focused equally on pursuing Trump’s enemies rather than justice. Right after the assassination, Trump promised to go after “each and every one of those who contributed to this atrocity … including the organisations providing backing.” He specifically mentioned George Soros, the American-Hungarian philanthropist and political contributor. “He’s a bad guy,” Trump told NBC News, he “should be put in jail.”

The motive behind Kirk’s killing remains unclear. The political views belonging to the attacker, 22-year-old Tyler Robinson, seem confused as those of another recent perpetrator, a young man who attempted to assassinate Trump in Pennsylvania. Does this represent the radical left targeting the radical right – or rather the strange, chaotic subculture from internet forums spilling into reality? The slogans etched on to ammunition shells in Utah read less like an ideological manifesto and more like a mix of immature jokes and gaming references.

Yet concerns arise that suppression of dissenting scholars, legal professionals, journalists, civil servants, armed forces members, and judges across the country may increase. Already, reactions on social media have led to a wave of sackings and diplomatic staff have cautioned non-citizens not to praise or make light of Kirk’s assassination, instructing consulates to take “appropriate action” against any foreigners who do.

Trump has long thrived amid turmoil and instability. When genuine emergencies are absent, he invents scenarios – including imagined crime pandemics in Los Angeles, the capital and Chicago. Fake chaos advances his ambitions. Now he has been handed chaos on a silver platter. It is understandable he couldn’t care less about national unity.

The shooting offers an ideal justification to strengthen control, silencing dissent, and centralizing authority – enabling future leaders may inherit total governmental power, regardless of personal appeal, merit or electoral support. Ultimately, any autocratic system must be established initially; after consolidation, it is simpler to maintain.

Liberal democracy and the rules-based global order have flaws, yet they provided peace, progress and prosperity – the antithesis of dictatorial rule. Implying that the US, a founder of modern systems, might rapidly descend into full-blown autocracy, with rulers adopting like Nazis in 1933, may seem far-fetched.

But from another vantage point, it is not far-fetched at all. Authoritarian rule was still within living memory during the upbringing of individuals within modern democratic Europe came of age. From Belgium to Bulgaria, numerous households retain memories of fatalities, devastation, hatred and poverty that authoritarianism leaves behind. If Americans want to save their near future, they may want to consult historical lessons.